March Madness First-Round Matchups: Quick Picks and Predictions

Which teams will advance to the second round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament and why

Mar 19, 2025

March is here, and that means it's time for the madness! With the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket set and the games ready to tip off on Thursday, I’ve highlighted each first-round matchup and picked a winner. Of course there’s the high likelihood that this will be entirely wrong and we’ll look back on this wondering, “What the hell was that guy thinking?” So before you use this as your template to make your picks, just remember that the odds of picking a perfect bracket is about 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 with no basketball knowledge. For the initiated, those odds decrease to a measly 1 in 120,200,000,000.

They call it “madness” for a reason, after all.

Some of the analysis you’re about to enjoy is in depth, some is…not. With 68 teams in the field, we’re bound to hold off on some deep write ups till the 2nd round.1

Now that we got the disclaimer out of the way, here’s a quick look at who’s definitely, without question, moving on to round two:

South Region

1. Auburn vs. 16. Alabama St

Auburn have lost 3 of their last 4 yet they still ended the season 28-5 on the back of the nation's best defense. Auburn was upset in the 1st round last year against No.13 Yale…but not this year. I would not be surprised to see the Tigers cut down the nets in a few weeks time.

Winner: Auburn by a LOT

8. Louisville vs. 9. Creighton

A battle of the birds.

Louisville went from 8 wins to 27 under new coach Pay Kelsey. The status of Smith, their best 3pt shooter, is still uncertain at the time of this write up.

Creighton fouls less frequently than every other team in the country so they matchup really well against the Cardinals. If they keep the Cardinals off the line, this is Creighton’s game to lose. I expect a close game but the BlueJays take this one.

Winner: Creighton

5. Michigan vs. 12. UC San Diego

Michigan is the only team in the country to start two seven footers that both average over 27 minutes. However, they're turnover magnets.

It's UC SD's fifth year in division one and their first year of eligibility. The fact that they’re dancing at all is incredibly impressive.

UCSD take nearly half of all of their shots from the three point line while G Hayden Grey leads the nation in steals on the other end of the court. If they can hit their shots while also forcing the Wolverines into mistakes, and I think they will, they’ll win their first tournament game in upset fashion. This could be one of the feel good stories of the competition.

Winner: UC San Diego

4. Texas A&M vs. 13. Yale

A&M ranks 274th in free throw percentage, 293rd from 2pt range, and 317th from the three. How are they ranked this high? Well, they are the number one offensive rebounding team in the nation. At some point, this has to come back to hurt them, and I think that time is now. Give me Yale in a buzzer beater.

Winner: Yale

6. Ole Miss vs. 11. San Diego St/North Carolina

Ole Miss is one of the lowest turnover teams in the country which on average, gives them just under 4 more possessions per game than everyone else. That is a stat that means more in March. Doesn't matter who they play at this stage, I'll take the Rebels.

Winner: Ole Miss

3. Iowa St vs. 14. Lipscomb

Iowa St is fighting some big injuries, non-bigger than star Keshon Gilbert who has been officially ruled out of tournament play.

Because Lipscomb is so undersized and clearly outmatched in terms of bench depth, I'll take Iowa St but I don't think their run is long.

Winner: Iowa St

7. Marquette vs. 10. New Mexico

Marquette has one of the best all around players in the country in Kam Jones. He’s a player that does the little things right and can take over games from all aspects.

On the other side, New Mexico's Donovan Dent is one of the best scorers in the country, averaging 50% from the field and over 20 points a game . This is one of the best matchups in the first round.

This one could go either way, but I’ll take Dent to turn it on when it matters and get the Lobos to the next round.

Winner: New Mexico

2. Michigan St vs. 15. Bryant

Bryant is on a 17-2 run since January 1st, it's a shame it's about to be 17-3. Michigan St wins big.

Winner: Michigan St

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1. Florida vs. 16. Norfolk St

Norfolk St is one of the best mid-range shooting teams in the country. Jalen Myers leads the group in that stat with a 60% shooting percentage from two, but Florida is better everywhere else. There’s a reason Florida is projected to win in 21.2% of all brackets submitted via ESPN.

Winner: Florida

8. UConn vs. 9. Oklahoma

Uconn is one of the weirdest team to predict. They have wins against Gonzaga, Creighton and even 2 over Marquette, but they’ve inexplicably also lost to Seton Hall, Colorado, and Dayton.

Oklahoma relies on freshmen Jeremiah Fears for a big portion of their scoring. Lucky for them, he's been on fire this last month. I'll take the Sooners by double digits.

Winner: Oklahoma

5. Memphis vs. 12. Colorado St

Penny Hardaway, one of my favorite former NBA players, coaches Memphis…that's all the analysis you get for this one. Go Tigers

Winner: Memphis

4. Maryland vs. 13. Grand Canyon

Grand Canyon has a two headed monster in Tyon Grant-Foster and TSU transfer Jakobe Coles. Unfortunately it's not enough to beat a really good Terps team. Sneak preview, but I think Maryland could be a Final Four team in 2025.

Winner: Maryland

6. Missouri vs. 11. Drake

Mizzou has done a lot of losing over the past month but with guard Mark Mitchell getting a full bill of health, this team could be dangerous on this side of the bracket.

This is the year of Ls for Drake and I think that continues. MUSTAAAAAARD

Winner: Mizzou

3. Texas Tech vs. 14. UNC Wilmington

UNCW are one of the shallowest teams. They rely heavily on their starting 5 because of that. It won't be enough to beat a Texas Tech squad that gets scoring from across their line-up.

Winner: Texas Tech

7. kansas vs. 10. Arkansas

kansas have won 20 games a year for 26 straight years, which is a D1 record, but they started as preseason #1 and have regressed since. I expect the regression to continue.

The Missourian in me won’t let me capitalize the “k” in kansas, you think I’d actually pick the Jayhawks? Not a chance.

Winner: Arkansas

2. St. Johns vs. 15. Omaha

Rick Pitino only needed two seasons to turn around this program and solidify a defense that is top 6 in the nation. Omaha will be packing their bags early.

Winner: St Johns

East Region

1. Duke vs. 16. (Mt St Mary’s/American)

Duke…obviously. We’ll cover them in more depth in later rounds.

Winner: Duke

8. Mississippi St vs. 9. Baylor

Mississippi St has not wowed me this year at all. Granted, the SEC has played some great basketball, but the Bulldogs were not one of those teams.

Baylor is finally healthy and better than their record suggests. I'll take Baylor in a not so close game.

Winner: Baylor

5. Oregon vs. 12. Liberty

Give me Liberty or give me….Ducks. Actually, yeah, give me the Ducks.

Winner: Oregon

4. Arizona vs. 13. Akron

Akron made the tournament for two straight seasons which had never happened in program history. Arizona is 4-5 in their last 9. When they're on, they're on. When they're not, they're losing to Akron in the 1st round. I'll take the upset.

Winner: Akron

6. BYU vs. 11. VCU

I feel like VCU is better than an 11 seed. One of the many teams to run a 4 guard approach, but the difference is that the starting squad is senior heavy. One more win will get them to 29 which will be a school record. I think it happens.

Winner: VCU

3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Montana

Montana has one loss since Jan 18th and has a guard named Money Williams…..Go ahead and cash it, Montana moves on.

Winner: Montana

7. St Mary’s vs. 10. Vanderbilt

St Mary's is the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the country at 40.5%. Unlike Texas A&M (who is first), they can also score the basket in other ways, so I'll take St. Mary's.

Winner: St Mary’s

2. Alabama vs. 15. Robert Morris

Robert Morris sounds like the name of my account. Alabama wins big

Winner: Alabama by half time

Midwest Region

1. Houston vs. 16. SIUE

As much as I'd love to see it….. Houston wins this big. Houston could walk to the Final Four this year and I certainly can’t see SIUE getting in their way.

Winner: Houston

8. Gonzaga vs. 9. Georgia

Georgia is one of the bigger teams in the tournament but they are very turnover prone.

Meanwhile, Gonzaga is going for a 10th straight Sweet 16 run, and I just want to see that happen.

Winner: Gonzaga

5. Clemson vs. 12. McNeese

McNeese sounds like the name of a cartoon Irish Goose. For that, I'm picking the upset.

Winner: McNeese

4. Purdue vs. 13. High Point

High Point is on a 14 game winning streak coming into this matchup and they also rank top 30 in offensive efficiency.

Purdue certainly has the defensive capabilities to nullify any offensive advantage High Point has, but this is March Madness and we don’t win by playing it safe.

Winner: High Point

6. Illinois vs. 11. Texas/Xavier

Flip a coin for this one because the Fighting Illini are exceptionally unpredictable. Actually I did flip a coin, and Illinois lost. The 11 seed strikes again.

Winner: Texas/Xavier

3. Kentucky vs. 14. Troy

Troy is weird. They rank top 30 in offensive rebounding but bottom 70 in defensive rebounding. Because I have no idea what to expect from them, Kentucky takes this one.

Winner: Kentucky

7. UCLA vs. 10. Utah St

Utah St are dancing for the 3rd straight year under three different coaches. They are top 20 in offensive efficiency and are a lot of people's dark horse. I'll jump on that bandwagon.

Winner: Utah St

2. Tennessee vs. 15. Wofford

There's always one team that goes on a crazy run that no one expects…..that team is not Wofford.

Winner: Tennessee

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